SACRAMENTO – Eric Swalwell is out – in the gubernatorial race of California and Congress, he is spending time with his family, as they say, after allegations of rape and sexual misconduct. That could be considered good news for the slain Democrats who are still in power, even the two top-voting Republicans.
But this muddled campaign period has clearly failed to capture the imagination of voters. This despite a sex scandal, a billionaire spending his millions, a dark horse spending millions on a tech-bro, a debate where the invitations were controversial and the event canceled and a sheriff taking votes with failed MAGA-pandering. (President Trump ended up backing his opponent.)
After all that, you’d think Californians would care, at least in a spectacular way.
But they don’t. At least for now.
So will the “undecided” remain the leader in this race until voters are forced to fill out their ballots? Even Republicans, with Trump-endorsed Steve Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco as their top picks, can’t make up their minds.
Times columnists Anita Chabria and Mark Z. Barabak ponder why the race is so hot, benefiting from the Swalwell plosion, whether anyone will ever be happy with any of these candidates — and what it all means for California’s future.
Chabria: We are less than 50 days away from the first on June 2nd and somehow this race is still boring and unpredictable.
There is a lot of talk about whether the two remaining top Democrats, former Rep. Katie Porter and billionaire investor Tom Steyer, will gather Swalwell’s supporters – or if a second-term candidate like San José Mayor Matt Mahan, the former district of Atty. Gen. Xavier Becerra or former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa may rise from the dead with a surprise operation.
With such a short term and candidates who have already proven their lack of interest, I worry that what happens next depends on money – Steyer and Mahan don’t have it. Mahan’s tech industry backers are already said to be putting together millions of dollars in ad buys to thrust his name and image into our consciousness in these final days, like a breakfast cereal we didn’t know we wanted to buy.
Ditto Steyer, although he has a much higher profile and the support of several key unions.
Do you think money will rule the roost this time, or are there other seriously talented candidates?
Barabak: Let’s be real.
If Tom Steyer were a schmo named Tom Steinway without a lot of luck advancing his political ambitions, he wouldn’t be far from running, let alone being talked about as one of the frontrunners. As it stands, Steyer has burned the equivalent of a small country’s GDP and has yet to draw 15% of the polls.
That is not a strong guarantee, except for all those he was able to help with his wealth.
California has a long history of rejecting moneybag candidates. In fact, no one has ever been elected governor. That said, we’ve never seen a tournament like this – and that was before Swalwell’s appointment went up in smoke.
The closest match – the absence of self-harm mentioned above – was in 1998. Voters weren’t crazy about the top two candidates, including the rich guy who blew up with a firehose of TV commercials, so they chose the colorless guy running far back in the pack. (And yes, dear reader, Gray Davis was eventually remembered, but that was after the fact.)
There is a saying in Iowa, around the presidential caucuses. The secret is to plan, plan, plan and finally burn. California, apparently, is not the kind of state that wins by holding a million and one kaffeeklatsches. But the principle – lay the foundation, and rely on time and luck – can work here.
Who could that be? Mahan’s sudden cash machine can’t hurt. But your guess is as good as mine.
Chabria: The thing about organizing is that for Democrats, most of the work is done by labor unions. They provide people, call banks, door knockers. The California Labor Federation this time endorsed basically everyone (Swalwell, Steyer, Villaraigosa and Porter), giving none of the Democratic candidates a chance.
In a rare move, the California Labor Federation and Service Employees International Union California withdrew their endorsement of Swalwell, as did other unions after the allegations emerged. But labor remains divided among the other candidates (although Steyer seems to be winning the love of the unions), a real problem when it comes to that kind of organizing.
It’s that separation of powers from real people that makes me worry that money will have more of an impact on this.
But again, there are unknowns. There is discussion on the internet that a popular or powerful competitor (Kamala? A celebrity?) could do a last minute write-in campaign. Although the law of the country no longer allows writing in the national election, there is only one small window left for the primary. WHAT DO YOU THINK? Can someone new come in and excite voters enough to misbehave?
Barabak: Well, there’s Steve Cloobeck.
Who, you might ask?
He is a wealthy real estate developer who left the race in November after a year-long campaign. On his way out, he enthusiastically acknowledged his close friend, Eric Swalwell.
Speaking with colleague Seema Mehta, Cloobeck said she wishes the Legislature would amend the state Constitution so she could file for re-election to the governor’s race – which is just as false as President Trump comparing himself to Jesus.
Seriously, political gossip hates an empty space, so it fills it with all kinds of fantastic scenarios of those who ride on white horses and release us … what exactly?
I have been a rare voice arguing that this race for the presidency is not boring at all. Boring would be Kamala Harris holding the reins of the Democratic nomination and people speculating if anyone could stop her. While this set of candidates won’t send laser light dancing into the dark sky, there are plenty of talented people still going, unless you’re looking for someone to entertain and/or give California four years of distraction and fun.
And we’ve seen what putting a reality TV star in the White House has done for us.
Chabria: At the end of the day, or at least election day, this is a question of who we trust for the future of California. Ultimately, that’s why this race is so tight – neither candidate, Republican or Democrat, has offered a compelling enough vision to make voters want to trust them over the next four or eight years.
To me, that’s the real failure here. I don’t think the voters would care at all, if there was rubbish about honesty and competence.
I agree with you that we don’t need another reality star in any elected office. And more than one of these chosen people have the skills to run a kingdom. But in an age of deceit, arrogance and incompetence, voters want someone they feel they can trust.
So far, none of the candidates has brought that sense of security, that they are campaigning for a public servant – instead of a dry challenger hoping for flowers.
So either someone goes up and earns a rose, or they go to the top—the least of the two is the worst. June’s elementary school holds her secrets for now.
Barabak: You know me; always someone to look on the bright side!
If you’re a Republican, the bright side is the long-shot, but unlikely, prospect of Bianco and Hilton holding both seats on June 2. That would mean one of the two spots in the governor’s office in January, despite the Democratic Alliance’s strong reliance in California.
For an apolitical, non-combatant voter like me, a Californian who cares deeply about our state, the upside is this: At least people are finally paying attention to the governor’s race.
So come on in! You have less than seven weeks left to make a decision.
