The war on Iran ends the war in Lebanon, the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz – National
A temporary ceasefire in the Iran war was disrupted on Thursday under the weight of Israel’s bombing of Beirut, Tehran’s continued stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz, and uncertainty over whether negotiators could find common ground on a range of other ideas.
Hours after the ceasefire was announced – amid disagreements over whether it included a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah – Israel struck Beirut with airstrikes, leading to the country’s worst day since the war began on February 28.
Iran and the US – both of which declared victory after the ceasefire announcement – appeared to be trying to pressure each other. Semiofficial news organizations in Iran have suggested that the military dig up the Strait of Hormuz, an important waterway for the world’s oil whose closure has proved Tehran’s biggest advantage in the conflict. President Donald Trump has warned that the US military will hit Iran harder than before if it does not fulfill the agreement.
But what that agreement is remains a matter of great debate. Aside from whether Lebanon is included, there are questions about what will happen to Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, if and when conventional vehicles will resume the crisis, and what happens to Iran’s ability to launch missile attacks in the future. The US and Iran will meet in Pakistan for talks this weekend.
Israeli strikes in Lebanon threaten ceasefire
Lebanon’s health ministry said at least 203 people were killed and more than 1,000 injured in widespread Israeli strikes in central Beirut and other areas of Lebanon on Wednesday, as Israel stepped up its offensive against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group, which has joined the war in support of Tehran.
The death toll was the highest in a single day in Lebanon during more than five weeks of renewed fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.
Iran said Israel was violating the ceasefire agreement, which it said included a ceasefire in Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump say not.
Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf warned on Thursday that Israel’s continued attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon would bring “clear costs and strong responses” in a message to X.
“Ceasefire violations have clear and forceful responses,” he wrote. “Put out the fire immediately.”
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Netanyahu said in a social media post that Israel would continue to hit Hezbollah “with force, precision and determination.”
Qalibaf has been discussed as a potential negotiator to meet US Vice President JD Vance this weekend in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan.
Israel said on Thursday it had killed Ali Yusuf Harshi, an aide to Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem. Hezbollah did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The New York-based think tank warned that the ceasefire “will collapse.”
“Even if Lebanon were officially outside the agreement, the level of Israeli strikes would be considered to be on the rise,” the Soufan Center wrote in an analysis. “The Israeli strikes can be understood as attempts to create tension between Iran and its proxies and as a response to being sidelined in the initial ceasefire talks.”
Lebanon’s National News Agency reported Thursday that an overnight Israeli strike killed at least seven people in southern Lebanon. The Israeli military did not immediately acknowledge the strike.
Oil prices remain high amid uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz
Semiofficial news agencies in Iran published a chart on Thursday suggesting that the country’s Revolutionary Guard has laid sea mines on the road during the war – a message that may be intended to pressure the US.
The chart, released by ISNA and Tasnim news agency, showed a large circle labeled “danger zone” in Farsi over the shipping lane that passes through the road, where 20% of all traded oil and natural gas once passed.
Only a few ships have passed through that state since the war began after several were attacked and Iran threatened to attack any it sees as connected to the US or Israel. The ships appeared to continue to evade the temptation even after the end of hostilities: Data from Kpler showed only four ships had their trackers transmitted.
The chart suggested the ships sailed closer to the Iranian mainland near the island of Larak, a route other ships were seen taking during the war. It was written on Feb. 28 until April 9, and it was not clear whether the security forces had removed the mines since then.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, told the BBC on Thursday that his country would allow ships to pass through this route in accordance with “international norms and international law” if the United States ends its “aggression” in the Middle East and Israel stops attacking Lebanon.
The head of the largest oil company of the United Arab Emirates, Sultan al-Jaber, said that about 230 ships loaded with oil are waiting to pass through the channel and must be allowed to “navigate the tunnel without conditions.”
The strait’s de facto closure has caused oil prices to skyrocket – raising the cost of fuel, food and other staples far beyond the Middle East. Oil prices fell on news of the ceasefire on Wednesday, but started to rise as uncertainty about the deal grew.
The price of Brent crude, the international standard, was around $98 on Thursday – up nearly 35 percent since the war began.
Trump warned that US warships and troops would remain in Iran “until the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.”‘
Peace talks are expected in Pakistan
The White House said Vice President JD Vance will lead the US delegation to talks in Islamabad aimed at ending the war, which are due to start on Saturday.
It seems that there are many points of disagreement that need to be discussed, including whether Iran will be allowed to legalize the charging system to use the strait that it has established. That would improve the decades-old precedent of treating it as an international waterway that was free to pass.
The fate of Iran’s missile and nuclear programs – the elimination of which were the main goals of the US and Israel in the war – is also unclear. The US insists that Iran must not be able to build nuclear weapons and wants to remove Tehran’s highly enriched uranium, which could be used to build them, if it chooses to pursue a bomb. Iran insists its program is peaceful.
Trump said on Wednesday that the US would work with Iran to remove buried uranium, although Iran has not confirmed that. In another version of the agreement published by Iran, it said it would be allowed to continue enrichment.
The head of Iran’s nuclear agency has said that protecting Tehran’s right to enrich uranium is “necessary” in any ceasefire talks with the United States.
Mohammad Eslami, who heads the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said this Thursday to reporters, including the Associated Press, during the commemoration of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran.
